Obama on Defense: Does anyone support President Obama that didn’t vote for him last election, at the height of his popularity? Probably not. Even where he currently leads, Obama finds himself on defense, holding together a fragile coalition of youth, black and Latino voters. Although Obama retains huge leads among these groups, can he count on his base to be fired up to turn out in numbers replicating his 2008 victory? Can he count on union members to knock on doors and mobilize precincts as enthusiastically? With Obamicans almost completely gone, independents wavering and all but the strongest Democrats unenthusiastic, Obama needs to attract a new faction of voters to his side quickly. But whom?
Momentum Toward Romney: Obama had the lead in nearly every poll throughout the year, yet three recent polls show Romney ahead or even. In recent weeks, the president’s average lead has shrunk from 5 points to only 1. Less than 47% of respondents are committed to the president, with undecideds likely to vote for change.
General Campaign Funds: When Romney accepts the nomination this week, he will have access to a treasure trove of riches sitting idle in his fall campaign coffers, previously untapped. Romney, with the RNC and outside groups will make it rain on Obama. Romney will vastly outspend Obama, flipping the advantage Team Obama had four short years ago.
Electoral Map Widens for Romney: The talking heads repeat that the new Obama map has opened up Virginia, Nevada and Colorado (North Carolina, less realistically) to Democratic victory. That’s 28 EVs. They fail to mention that Romney – especially with Paul Ryan on the ticket – is remarkably strong for a Republican contender in the Great Lakes states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Romney-Ryan put 46 EV’s in play that otherwise wouldn’t be.
History on our Side: With a fragile and sputtering economy and approval ratings remaining below 50%, the incumbent president rarely wins re-election. According to polling guru Karl Rove, “On average, Democrats saw a 4.9% swing and Republicans had a 6.3% increase” coming out of conventions dating back to 1964. With Romney slightly ahead or even with President Obama in current polling, Republicans find themselves in the
pole poll position going into the final stretch.