“Undercover Trump voters” is Kellyanne Conway’s term, not the LAT’s, but they’re talking about the same phenomenon. Namely, the idea that droves of people who didn’t vote in 2012 (#NeverRomney?) and who may not have voted for years before that are going to turn out this year and put Trump over the top. If there’s a large group out there like that, they won’t factor into the results of some surveys because pollsters focus on registered and likely voters, especially this close to the election. If you’re someone who hasn’t registered yet but is planning to in order to vote for Trump, those polls might not capture your support. And if there are enough people like you out there, that could mean the polls are systematically understating how many actual Trump voters there are.
So the theory goes. The flaw is that it’s very easy to tell a pollster that you’re unregistered but plan to vote this year and not as easy to actually do it.
The existence of a bloc of disaffected voters large enough to potentially swing the election Trump’s way is the main finding from an analysis of the first eight weeks of the daily tracking poll…
The poll respondents who did not vote in 2012 are disproportionately whites who did not graduate from college — Trump’s strongest supporters. Almost six in 10 of the 2012 nonvoters fall into that group. By contrast, non-college-educated whites make up about four in 10 of the poll respondents who did vote four years ago…
As of Tuesday, Trump led by seven points among those who could have voted in 2012 but didn’t. Clinton led by two points among those who voted four years ago or were too young to vote then, the Daybreak poll found. Among whites without a college degree who …read more
Read more here:: Hot Air